Many fans seem to be debating the merits of Bill Guerin and Ruslan Fedotenko. Let's examine how they might fit for next season.
Guerin is the ying to Crosby's yang. He's the perfect compliment to Sid. Sid is about as pass-first a superstar (he refuses to shoot unless it's after a 'spinerella' - thanks Errey - or he's standing in the crease) as we've seen. Guerin fires the puck at every opportunity. He's also very calm with the puck and above average at protecting it. He also brings veteran leadership, savvy and tough-nosed play when it's needed. So what's the problem. Guerin is 38. That's about the age that Gary Roberts, a comparable player, started declining. If he plays like he did in the playoffs over the course of this next season, he's a bargain at anything 3 million or under. But he can't do that. Age will catch up to him. Guerin can play 2-3 months of hard, fast hockey at this point in his career. I'd let him sign with a bottom feeder, mentor young players, and get him at the trade deadline again if we are in position for another cup run and he looks to be still a useful player. Signing him to a one-year 3 million contract or a two-year 4 million contract just does not seem like a wise move. If he signs, Guerin will frustrate many fans this season.
Fedotenko I'm a little warmer to. He is in the prime of his career, scores 20 goals in a healthy season and brings a physical element to his game when he's not scoring, something Sykora never did. Unfortunately, Fedotenko floats quite often during the regular season. He does, however, bring it in the playoffs. He would be wise to accept the three-year 7.2 million deal that Pittsburgh has been rumored to be willing to offer. He, by merit of this team's cap struggles, would be a top six winger alongside two of the five best players in the world for the next three years.
However, cup teams tend to fall off the next year. Championship teams are comprised of humans, and thus they are only human themselves. There will be a let-up at some point next year. Sid and Bylsma will have this team in the playoffs, though; I don't doubt that. However, new blood will be a good thing for the Penguins. Detroit lost the cup even though they added Hossa, proving luck, chemistry and drive are the things that win cups, not skill.
The Penguins will need to continue to add cheap, tough and speedy wingers to play next to Crosby and Malkin. With their salaries, that's all the team can afford. Guerin and Fedotenko were nice pieces in a cup run, but anyone with heart and a will to win is good enough to play with Crosby and Malkin and continue to win in Pittsburgh. Crosby and Malkin can handle the rest themselves.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
2009-2010 Pens
The NHL season is over, concluding with one of the most improbable, and greatest, Cup runs. The Pens have been partying QUITE A BIT around Pittsburgh. Hell, enjoy it, guys. You deserve a breather and a shave more than any hockey team since perhaps the Olympic USA team in 1980.
With hockey dead, it's time to move on to the draft and how free agency will affect the birdies roster for next year. The draft is something I profess I have no expertise in. Therefore, all I'll say for now about that, until I hear who we pick, is that I hope we pick the best player regardless of position for the first three picks, secondarily focusing on players who are tough, fast, and can handle the biscuit well, above all else.
As for predicting our team next year, I think many fans have unrealistic expectations. They think we can either bring everyone back, or we'll stuff cash into the pocket of some winger like Gaborik or Havlat - at under market value - to play with Sid. Neither of these things has a damn chance of happening.
I thought the Goligoski signing was a good contract. Pricey for the first year, but Goligoski was going to put up 40 points last year, folks. I bet Columbus would give us a 1st for him. They need someone who can at least attempt to run a PP there like Ovechkin needs some sleeping pills - dude needs to chill out. Point being, good deal for Goligoski and the Pens.
Here where we are at:
Kunitz - Crosby - Dupuis
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Godard
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski -
Fleury
We are 8 million under the cap, and have 5 spots to fill. That's 1.6 million per contract. That's not very much, especially since every player we sign for above that rate detracts from how much we can pay the others, on an accelerating scale. In short, we'd have to turn the likes of Gonchar, Staal or Orpik - three outstanding players on a chamion squad - loose to sign a big name FA. Just not happenin'.
I've heard a lot of talk about getting a veteran netminder like Legace or Weekes. Are you kidding me? We're going to ride Fleury, and if he goes down, the rest of the team will have to step up their games to compensate. With a team as cap-strapped and star-dependent as the Pens, something has to give. I will be shocked and outraged if Shero thinks Legace is 400k better than Curry. That money is MUCH better spent elsewhere. Curry looked solid in limited action next year and has a bargain contract. Go with him unless Fleury goes down for the season and Curry flounders. Curry makes about 600k, which leaves us with 7.4 million left under the cap.
I also don't see any reason not to sign one of Zigomanis / Adams. Most people prefer Zigomanis for his faceoffs, but I see our young centers continuing to improve on draws next year, and Adams is the grittier, battle-tested cup winner. Both kill penalties, though I would argue Zigomanis is exceedingly mediocre if he loses the faceoff, which, contrary to popular belief, does happen more than when the Coyotes sell out their arena. My preference would be Adams, but by a small margin.
Dupuis must be traded. I don't care if it's for a 7th rounder. If he isn't traded, he will be on Crosby's wing with Kunitz, and I'd rather not imagine that scenario. Talk about taking an awesome batch of potato patch fries and pouring prune juice and chewing tobacco all over them. That's Crosby with those wingers.
From here, there's really three options:
A) resign Guerin and Feds for as little as can be done, and rely on minor leaguers to fill out the rest of the roster. Shero has offered Tank a 3-year, 2.4 million deal. Let's say he signs. That gives us another low to middling, though definitely a playoff performing, top 6 winger. I'm on the fence about this kind of signing. Guerin is a player I absolutely do not want back for anything more than a low ball offer to play for another cup. I do not think Guerin will sign for less than 2.5 million, likely closer to 3, and I do not want to pay him more than 2 million. Also, adding a second year on to the deal, when the cap might decrease next year, is beyond asinine. I know this is not a popular opinion, but Guerin cannot play top 6 minutes for extended periods of time anymore. He was a great piece in a cup-winning team. He's the type of player better left to float around for a season on a bottom-feeder before being traded at the deadline. I could see that same scenario playing out for him again.
Kunitz - Crosby - Guerin (2.5 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Fedotenko (2.4)
Cooke - Staal - Kennedy
Godard - Zigo/Ad (750k) - Wallace/Jeffery/Caputi/Tangradi/Johnson/Bissonette (entry)
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Lovejoy (800k*not yet signed)
Fleury
Curry (600k)
Notice how we have a multitude of players who could fill in on line 4, but only one real minor league option on D. I have heard differing opinions, but it's my opinion that Strait should not see NHL time this season, though I've heard management has told him he has a shot. I'll call that one a ploy to get him to leave school. Short of the plague infected our D corps, Strait won't see more than a cup of tea in the NHL next season. This also puts us RIGHT up against the cap, even conceding Guerin would sign for 2.5 mil. There is no Scuderi option here.
B) Substitute Scuderi for Guerin. They will cost about the same. Scuderi COULD sign here for as low as 2.5 or 2.6, but if we want him, we will probably need to venture right up to three million.
In this case:
Kunitz - Crosby - Fedotenko (2.4 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Wallace/Jeffery/Caputi
Godard - Zigo/Ad (750k) - Wallace/Jeffery/Tangradi/Johnson/Bissonette/
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Scuderi (3 mil)
Lovejoy as first call-up.
Fleury
Curry (600k)
This is a more balanced group, but hardly ideal. It is my preference to not count on Zigomanis, Adams, or a rook to mainstay the 3rd line for any period of time besides an injury.
C) This option is my preference. We sign a veteran defenseman on the cheap for about 1.5. We sign Feds or a similarly-priced winger. We then sign another bargain basement winger, to keep rookies off the 3rd line unless injuries strike or they play their way into more minutes.
I would like to re-sign Boucher for 1.5. He isn't the best in the world, but he can play PP and PK, which is important. We need a veteran to play with Goligoski who can move the puck, but play responsible defense. Boucher has also become a mentor to Letang and embraced the 6/7 defenseman role. I would like this signing.
Other options in this price range would include:
Paul Mara - Has a hell of a shot from the point. An interesting choice, as he would give as another offensive threat and good puck mover with decent size. Mara goes hot and cold, but maybe playing for the Pens and a similar veteran (but much better, obviously) in Gonchar, would stablize him.
Greg Zanon - This dude is the same player as Scuderi, except he plays on a crappy team and not a SC winner. By far my choice, should Boucher not want to return or ask for too much Benjamins.
I wouldn't mind him being signed instead of Boucher, either.
Mathieu Dandenault is another name I wouldn't mind the Pens taking a look at.
As for the bargain forward, options include:
Chris Neil
Dan Hinote
Todd Bertuzzi
Brad Winchester - a little-known option who is a big body with a nice shot. Limited speed and playmaking ability, but good along the boards. Scored 13 goals this year.
My lineup:
Kunitz - Crosby - Fedotenko (2.4 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Winchester (1 mil)
Godard - Jeffrey (600k) - Adams (700k)
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Zanon (1.5 mil)
Lovejoy
Fleury
Curry (600k)
This allows us about an additional 1.5 million in cap space. This allows us to pull another deadline Guerin-type deal, provided we send some salary the other way. Some early options look to be Owen Nolan, Raffi Torres, Cory Stillman, Marek Svatos, or (outside shot) Hejduk.
With hockey dead, it's time to move on to the draft and how free agency will affect the birdies roster for next year. The draft is something I profess I have no expertise in. Therefore, all I'll say for now about that, until I hear who we pick, is that I hope we pick the best player regardless of position for the first three picks, secondarily focusing on players who are tough, fast, and can handle the biscuit well, above all else.
As for predicting our team next year, I think many fans have unrealistic expectations. They think we can either bring everyone back, or we'll stuff cash into the pocket of some winger like Gaborik or Havlat - at under market value - to play with Sid. Neither of these things has a damn chance of happening.
I thought the Goligoski signing was a good contract. Pricey for the first year, but Goligoski was going to put up 40 points last year, folks. I bet Columbus would give us a 1st for him. They need someone who can at least attempt to run a PP there like Ovechkin needs some sleeping pills - dude needs to chill out. Point being, good deal for Goligoski and the Pens.
Here where we are at:
Kunitz - Crosby - Dupuis
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Godard
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski -
Fleury
We are 8 million under the cap, and have 5 spots to fill. That's 1.6 million per contract. That's not very much, especially since every player we sign for above that rate detracts from how much we can pay the others, on an accelerating scale. In short, we'd have to turn the likes of Gonchar, Staal or Orpik - three outstanding players on a chamion squad - loose to sign a big name FA. Just not happenin'.
I've heard a lot of talk about getting a veteran netminder like Legace or Weekes. Are you kidding me? We're going to ride Fleury, and if he goes down, the rest of the team will have to step up their games to compensate. With a team as cap-strapped and star-dependent as the Pens, something has to give. I will be shocked and outraged if Shero thinks Legace is 400k better than Curry. That money is MUCH better spent elsewhere. Curry looked solid in limited action next year and has a bargain contract. Go with him unless Fleury goes down for the season and Curry flounders. Curry makes about 600k, which leaves us with 7.4 million left under the cap.
I also don't see any reason not to sign one of Zigomanis / Adams. Most people prefer Zigomanis for his faceoffs, but I see our young centers continuing to improve on draws next year, and Adams is the grittier, battle-tested cup winner. Both kill penalties, though I would argue Zigomanis is exceedingly mediocre if he loses the faceoff, which, contrary to popular belief, does happen more than when the Coyotes sell out their arena. My preference would be Adams, but by a small margin.
Dupuis must be traded. I don't care if it's for a 7th rounder. If he isn't traded, he will be on Crosby's wing with Kunitz, and I'd rather not imagine that scenario. Talk about taking an awesome batch of potato patch fries and pouring prune juice and chewing tobacco all over them. That's Crosby with those wingers.
From here, there's really three options:
A) resign Guerin and Feds for as little as can be done, and rely on minor leaguers to fill out the rest of the roster. Shero has offered Tank a 3-year, 2.4 million deal. Let's say he signs. That gives us another low to middling, though definitely a playoff performing, top 6 winger. I'm on the fence about this kind of signing. Guerin is a player I absolutely do not want back for anything more than a low ball offer to play for another cup. I do not think Guerin will sign for less than 2.5 million, likely closer to 3, and I do not want to pay him more than 2 million. Also, adding a second year on to the deal, when the cap might decrease next year, is beyond asinine. I know this is not a popular opinion, but Guerin cannot play top 6 minutes for extended periods of time anymore. He was a great piece in a cup-winning team. He's the type of player better left to float around for a season on a bottom-feeder before being traded at the deadline. I could see that same scenario playing out for him again.
Kunitz - Crosby - Guerin (2.5 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Fedotenko (2.4)
Cooke - Staal - Kennedy
Godard - Zigo/Ad (750k) - Wallace/Jeffery/Caputi/Tangradi/Johnson/Bissonette (entry)
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Lovejoy (800k*not yet signed)
Fleury
Curry (600k)
Notice how we have a multitude of players who could fill in on line 4, but only one real minor league option on D. I have heard differing opinions, but it's my opinion that Strait should not see NHL time this season, though I've heard management has told him he has a shot. I'll call that one a ploy to get him to leave school. Short of the plague infected our D corps, Strait won't see more than a cup of tea in the NHL next season. This also puts us RIGHT up against the cap, even conceding Guerin would sign for 2.5 mil. There is no Scuderi option here.
B) Substitute Scuderi for Guerin. They will cost about the same. Scuderi COULD sign here for as low as 2.5 or 2.6, but if we want him, we will probably need to venture right up to three million.
In this case:
Kunitz - Crosby - Fedotenko (2.4 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Wallace/Jeffery/Caputi
Godard - Zigo/Ad (750k) - Wallace/Jeffery/Tangradi/Johnson/Bissonette/
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Scuderi (3 mil)
Lovejoy as first call-up.
Fleury
Curry (600k)
This is a more balanced group, but hardly ideal. It is my preference to not count on Zigomanis, Adams, or a rook to mainstay the 3rd line for any period of time besides an injury.
C) This option is my preference. We sign a veteran defenseman on the cheap for about 1.5. We sign Feds or a similarly-priced winger. We then sign another bargain basement winger, to keep rookies off the 3rd line unless injuries strike or they play their way into more minutes.
I would like to re-sign Boucher for 1.5. He isn't the best in the world, but he can play PP and PK, which is important. We need a veteran to play with Goligoski who can move the puck, but play responsible defense. Boucher has also become a mentor to Letang and embraced the 6/7 defenseman role. I would like this signing.
Other options in this price range would include:
Paul Mara - Has a hell of a shot from the point. An interesting choice, as he would give as another offensive threat and good puck mover with decent size. Mara goes hot and cold, but maybe playing for the Pens and a similar veteran (but much better, obviously) in Gonchar, would stablize him.
Greg Zanon - This dude is the same player as Scuderi, except he plays on a crappy team and not a SC winner. By far my choice, should Boucher not want to return or ask for too much Benjamins.
I wouldn't mind him being signed instead of Boucher, either.
Mathieu Dandenault is another name I wouldn't mind the Pens taking a look at.
As for the bargain forward, options include:
Chris Neil
Dan Hinote
Todd Bertuzzi
Brad Winchester - a little-known option who is a big body with a nice shot. Limited speed and playmaking ability, but good along the boards. Scored 13 goals this year.
My lineup:
Kunitz - Crosby - Fedotenko (2.4 mil)
Talbot - Malkin - Kennedy
Cooke - Staal - Winchester (1 mil)
Godard - Jeffrey (600k) - Adams (700k)
Gonchar - Orpik
Letang - Eaton
Goligoski - Zanon (1.5 mil)
Lovejoy
Fleury
Curry (600k)
This allows us about an additional 1.5 million in cap space. This allows us to pull another deadline Guerin-type deal, provided we send some salary the other way. Some early options look to be Owen Nolan, Raffi Torres, Cory Stillman, Marek Svatos, or (outside shot) Hejduk.
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